Wildfire disasters avoided in Chile

Technical experts at CONAF, Chile’s National Forestry Agency, have been documenting avoided loses due to wildfires since 2014-2015. Their goal is to use these analyses to facilitate the assessment of prevention and response actions and improve future policies on wildfire risk management [Saavedra et al., 2022]. 

CONAF has implemented methodologies for assessing avoided losses due to wildfire using two complementary approaches: a) simulation of fire behaviour and b) fire potential polygons. The latter method has been incorporated into the analysis since 2017-2018 and applied to events such as Agua Fría (2021) and Santa Ana (2023). 

Then, they compare the modelled or potential burned area with the actual burned area post-fire, to calculate avoided burned area, as shown in Figure 1 for the Santa Ana fires in the Biobío region, where 135 515 hectares (ha) were spared from the fire. The avoided burned area is then combined with data on population density, property values, direct (market) and indirect (social and environmental) and vegetation value to estimate total economic losses, and the number of structures and people spared from loses.

In January and February 2023, Chile experienced one of its most severe wildfire seasons on record. CONAF estimated the total avoided economic losses across all regions at approximately USD2 billion about 20.8 times greater than the current USD101 million budget for fire control and prevention activities; and 64 477 people and 46 634 structures were spared from the wildfire impacts.

At the community level, CONAF has been implementing wildfire prevention initiatives through its Community Preparedness Program, which engages residents in high-risk rural and wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas to co-develop participatory prevention plans. These processes are complemented by capacity-building workshops addressing household fortification, self-protection spaces, and emergency protocols, as well as silvicultural treatments in interface zones, including pruning, thinning, and the establishment of fuel breaks to reduce fuel continuity and fire spread. By integrating local knowledge with institutional expertise, these actions not only strengthen community resilience but also reflect a multi-scalar approach to wildfire governance and risk reduction.

This case study illustrates the key role of good data from models and earth observations - not just for fire mitigation and response, but also to help justify funding allocated towards prevention activities, therefore contributing to avoided wildfire disasters through the right investment.

Sources:

Saavedra, J., J. Brull Badia. T. Osses Acuña, and S. Mendoza Olavarría, Evaluación del daño evitado por incendios (2018-2020) en Chile, Revista Incendios y Riesgos Naturales, 2022 https://revistarirn.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/RIyRN_Julio2022_n07.pdf

This case study has been produced in association with Jorge Saavedra, Daniela Alegría, Gonzalo Tapia, and Mackenzie Allen.