Through our research and documentation of case studies, we are discovering patterns and trends which we are distilling into an emerging model for avoiding disasters.
This emerging model is a "work in progress". It does not cover all aspects of disaster risk reduction and management; its purpose is to highlight commonalities in the actions people are taking to avoid disasters around the world. There is no "right or wrong" answer to how we approach the goal to avoid disasters, and understanding the context of a situation is always vital. We hope that the common threads we describe below are of value.
We are testing our emerging model through 2023 and 2024 and we stand ready to modify it or replace it with something else as we progress with our work.
© Byatt, Kelman and Prados. We are happy for people to use this model as long as we are informed and credited.
Some principal aspects of this model are as follows:
These principles also reveal that not all disasters avoided are due to forethought. Luck can play a role. Three categories called “potential non-disasters” conceptualise what a disaster avoided is: 
These categories indicate how we could and should do better, especially by trying to encourage active work towards Type 3.
 Podloski, B. and I. Kelman: Categorising Potential Non-Disasters; Disaster Prevention and Management (Nov 2023)
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