Key factors we are seeing to avoid disasters
Disasters can be avoided with the right blend of actions...
Through our research and documentation of case studies, we are discovering patterns and trends which we are distilling into an emerging model for avoiding disasters.
This emerging model is a "work in progress". It does not cover all aspects of disaster risk reduction and management; its purpose is to highlight commonalities in the actions people are taking to avoid disasters around the world. There is no "right or wrong" answer to how we approach the goal to avoid disasters, and understanding the context of a situation is always vital. We hope that the common threads we describe below are of value.
We have been testing our emerging model throughout 2023 and 2024, and we continue to do so in 2025. We stand ready to modify / update or replace it with something else as we progress with our work and as we test it against different real-life situations and case studies.
© Byatt, Kelman and Prados. We are happy for people to use this model as long as we are informed and credited.
Key principles
Some principles to avoiding a disaster
Some principal aspects of this model are as follows:
- Having the right mindset to tackle the root causes of disasters and to focus on avoiding them is key. Without the right mindset, no amount of investment / funding (however large it may be) and action will achieve the full benefits we aspire to achieve. The right mindset includes understanding that disasters do not come from nature (there are no "natural disasters"), they come from the choices we make to live and build in harm’s way, and from people being placed, or placing themselves, in areas where major hazards exist.
- The right mindset helps us secure the right investment / funding at the right time, which includes making a good case for the benefits of all investments, so that resources can be applied to efforts to avoid disasters.
- Good governance stems from a political and economic will to protect people and the planet. It should be well-informed, accountable and enforced. Governance that is effective is crucial to managing investments and funds well, and to delivering meaningful social, environmental and economic benefits through such financial resources.
- Good decision-making should be informed by good data (which links to securing the right investment / funding). We should collect, analyse and act on good data, using a range of solutions (including Earth observations by satellites, AI and on the ground observations).
- Good data supports meaningful inclusion of everyone, to agree how we create a society that can withstand and hopefully be in harmony with nature’s energies and forces.
- Meaningful inclusion leads us to set and manage to meaningful targets that are realistic and achievable with the resources (including funding) we have available. When appropriate, targets can be linked to global-level efforts including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, the Sustainable Development Goals (the SDGs), climate change mitigation and adaptation, the New Urban Agenda, and the Humanitarian Agenda.
These principles also reveal that not all disasters avoided are due to forethought. Luck can play a role. Three categories called “potential non-disasters” conceptualise what a disaster avoided is: [1]
- Type 1: Society has limited presence in the hazard-affected locale.
- Type 2: Short-term actions were taken.
- Type 3: Long-term actions were taken.
These categories indicate how we could and should do better, especially by trying to encourage active work towards Type 3.
[1] Podloski, B. and I. Kelman: Categorising Potential Non-Disasters; Disaster Prevention and Management (Nov 2023)
